A recent article in the New York Times caught my eye. It discusses a paper in cognitive psychology titled "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties of Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-assessments."

According to the paper, there are two types of people in the world: those who have enough experience to know they're making a mistake, and those who don't have that much experience yet. In this world-view, the amateur player makes a mistake but also fails to realize that it was a mistake.

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In this article, I discuss what winrates are sustainable over a large sample by a good player, in different game types and formats, and then I discuss what hourly rate these ROIs translate into.

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