I've been doing some work with pareto equilibriums and I've come to a realization about poker strategies. If our opponent is highly exploitable, say, in a way that would cause us to CORRECTLY perform an action 100% of the time, we will be MORE profitable if we only perform that action 80% of the time.
The 20% of the time when the action is likely close break-even (due to our hand strength, our opponents tendencies, the board, etc) will not produce good enough results to compensate for our need to keep our strategy deceptive.
I am officially withdrawing all of my "I'd XYZ him 100%" strategies and making them "I'd XYZ him 80%."
December 2010 Archives
Why To Never Do Anything 100%
Science of Bad Financial Decisions
I really liked this NOVA documentary, and I hope you do too.
Sweat Me While I Play
I just wanted to inform everyone that I've started doing regular sweat sessions with some light coaching for anyone interested in improving their heads-up game.
I'm going to post them about an hour before they begin on the Risk Oriented Facebook Page, so go ahead and make yourself a fan over there if you haven't yet.
Anyone else who wants to get sweats is more than welcome to post their own sweat session info on the Facebook page too.