I've been doing some work with pareto equilibriums and I've come to a realization about poker strategies. If our opponent is highly exploitable, say, in a way that would cause us to CORRECTLY perform an action 100% of the time, we will be MORE profitable if we only perform that action 80% of the time.
The 20% of the time when the action is likely close break-even (due to our hand strength, our opponents tendencies, the board, etc) will not produce good enough results to compensate for our need to keep our strategy deceptive.
I am officially withdrawing all of my "I'd XYZ him 100%" strategies and making them "I'd XYZ him 80%."
Why To Never Do Anything 100%
About the Author
Samuel Smith is the founder of Risk Oriented. He's formerly a professional poker player, now working as a coach and writer. His game of choice is HU SNGs, where he boasts an impressive 57% winrate.