Risk Oriented | Heads Up Poker Strategy

FREE COPY of Dynamic Full Ring Poker CONTEST

2011-11-21T20:09:06Z

I hold in my hands a brand new, autographed copy of Dynamic Full Ring Poker, Beyond the Basics, by James "SplitSuit" Sweeney. In RiskOriented's first ever contest, we're giving away this copy (a $97 value!) to one lucky Twitter or Facebook follower who reshares the contest post on Facebook or retweets the post on Twitter. Follow RiskOriented on your favorite social network between now and December 5 for a FREE chance to win.

This contest is to promote SplitSuit's newest coaching product, The 100K Micro-stakes NL System: Crushing 50nl in 2012. I'm confident that you'll love the book, and you'll love the coaching system even more.

Just in time for the holidays, the exclusive, autographed book will make an excellent Christmas gift for a poker-playing friend or family member.

Full Terms & Conditions

Only real, personal Facebook and Twitter accounts (more than 30 friends or followers) qualify. Claim your copy within a week or we'll pick a new winner. Non-US winners will have to chop extra shipping charges due to weight (Cost to you: $10 - it's thick!). Maximum of one entry per network, two entries per household. You must be following or a fan (in addition to retweeting) to win. Winner will be chosen by random number generator.

Multitabling: Part 5 - Shortstack Postflop Play

2011-11-21T16:00:00Z

Today I'm going to explain three more concepts for short-stack play.

Calling all-in preflop (Continued from my last blog)

Calling all-ins preflop are a function of just two variables: The opponents raising range, and your stack size. If you know these two things, you can define an exact range to call an all-in. Here are these exact ranges, already calculated. If your stack size falls between categories, then you'll have to use a little guesswork to find the appropriate calling range. Print this out and place it next to your computer.

If the SB is shoving 25% of his hands and you are 6BB deep, then you should call with 22+,A2+,KT+,K6s+,QJ+,Q9s+,JTs+. This chart is also found in NLHE Theory and Practice by Sklansky/Miller.

]]> Raising and CBetting

When under 10bb, I hardly ever raise preflop, preferring to push or fold. When 15-25bb, though, it's better to minraise than 3x and it's better to cbet 1/3 pot or 1/2 pot instead of 2/3 pot. These two adjustments are always the case no matter your hand. When stacks get short, you don't need to raise as much preflop in order to pot commit yourself on the board of your choosing. Therefore, you can get away with minraising and cbetting halfpot with a monster and still get all your chips in on the turn or river. With full stacks, this is hardly ever the case.

Checkraising

What's the purpose of a checkraise? At the core, it builds the pot faster, because we put in two bets on the same street instead of just one bet on every street. This means a hand that goes bet-checkraise-bet-bet will have a larger final pot than a hand that goes bet-bet-bet. When you're shortstacked, you get much less value from checkraises, because chances are you can take either a check/call-bet-bet or check/call-check/call-bet line for more value and still successfully stack the same types of hands that you would stack with a checkraise. Checkraising vulnerable hands or draws still has merit when shortstacked.

Multitabling: Part 4 - Making Decisions Quickly

2011-11-15T04:00:00Z

Heads up poker is a game of frequent decisions. Some are harder than others, and because of the nature of the game, some situations are so uncertain that no amount of discussion will give you a conclusive answer. This post is about how to play such, marginal spots.

]]> Here's an example hand:

You've got 88 in the SB and you raise, the BB, a loose-aggressive OOP player, calls. The flop comes 79T and he check-raises your cbet. Do you move all in, fold, or call?

I'll bet that you can go to any blog or twoplustwo forum post and post this hand and get several different answers. Some people fold now, some people try to peel, and some people (probably my line) will just shove and try to fold off some hands that checkraise. Who is right? When is picking a different line a mistake? Sometimes you just can't know. Decision-making when multitabling involves knowing the difference between decisions that require you to click the "time" button and decisions that are so close that nobody really knows what line is best. In other words, efficiency.

Marginal decisions are those that require the most thought, and they're also the ones that only improve your winrate slightly. As a rule of thumb, against loose-aggressive opponents, most of your decisions are fuzzy. You can't put the above-mentioned player on a range, and you certainly can't put him on the two separate ranges "What hands is he check-raising" and "What hands will he fold if I go all in" -- so we aren't ever sure if pushing is better than folding or calling. However, we DO know that you probably have a good 10 outs if you're called, and he may muck something like a pair of nines. In any event, it's all speculation, and that's why the decision is not worth taking a lot of time on. If fold, call, and raise all have similar expected values, then, according to game theory, we are completely indifferent between the three outcomes and we might as well just flip a three-sided coin to choose the decision for us. If you're not sure what to do, don't blame yourself, just pick whatever you like most and either you'll figure it out by the river or you won't.

Multitabling: Part 3 - Shortstack Preflop Play

2011-11-11T18:00:00Z

Fundamental understanding of mathematically correct shortstack play is absolutely vital to HU SNGs in general. On my A-game, I figure I have a massive edge on just about any player at my stakes. But what happens when I happen to be on my B-game, or my C-game? I regularly joke that I don't ever play my A-game because my B-game is good enough. Suffice to say, it's all I can muster when I'm on 8 tables. How is it that my B-game achieves double-digit ROIs?

Learn the Sklansky-Chubokov rankings

Every hand has a Sklansky-Chubokov number. Refer to the Appendix in NLHE: Theory and Practice by Sklansky/Miller or this website: http://www2.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html. These rankings are the mathematical solution to the question: "Suppose I am in the SB and I turn my cards face up. What is the maximum number of small blinds I can have in my stack and still go all in, assuming my opponent will call/fold with perfect accuracy from this point forward." The S-C rankings are the bottom-line push/fold system. If you are 16BB deep and have A2o but are not confident playing it for a raise or a limp, given the S-C ranking you know it is absolutely profitable to go all in. One must never assume that the S-C rankings are the most-profitable line, but it pays to have an intimate understanding of just how powerful Ace-rag hands are when shoving preflop. Better believe it, I can turn A2o face up and profitably shove all in preflop with 20BB.

]]>

Forget the Nash Equilibrum and SAGE charts

They will only serve to mislead you. If you want to know why, pick up a game theory book and learn everything you can about what a Nash equilibrium represents. From Wikipedia, the following factors have to be in place to prefer to use Nash pushbotting:

The players all will do their utmost to maximize their expected payoff as described by the game.
The players are flawless in execution.
The players have sufficient intelligence to deduce the solution.
The players know the planned equilibrium strategy of all of the other players.
The players believe that a deviation in their own strategy will not cause deviations by any other players.
There is common knowledge that all players meet these conditions, including this one. So, not only must each player know the other players meet the conditions, but also they must know that they all know that they meet them, and know that they know that they know that they meet them, and so on.

In poker, we are dealing with imperfect opponents. This means we always prefer an exploitive strategy to an optimal one. Instead of memorizing the Nash charts, get a copy of Sit N Go Wizard or SNG Power Tools and assume your opponents will call your all-ins between 15% and 30% of the time. If I am pushing 100% of my hands, my opponent should call much looser than 30% of his, but you'd be hard pressed to find a HU opponent who happily stacks off with hands like Q3 or J8s. Since he is not playing optimally, he is exploitable. Memorize or intuitively learn how short the stacks have to be to push 100% of your small blind hands, assuming the BB calls his best 30%.

Figure out how to exploit button raisers with flop check-shoves or 3-bet shoves

I don't want to go into this, because Moshman gave a perfect elaboration of the accurate strategy in his HUNL book, and I would basically be restating what he wrote. You should all have his book, and if you are unsure of how to play against button raisers, get out your calculator and learn how to do the math. You need to know these variables: The percent of hands the button raises / The percent of hands the button calls an all-in / Your expected value when he calls and your expected value when he folds. You'll find that shoving a lot of weak hands like T8 or 67s is a great way to mindlessly play 20-30bb stacks against certain players.

Multitabling: Part 2 - HUD

2011-11-04T20:00:00Z

A good HUD, though vital, is pretty easy to implement.

These are the statistics I use on my on-table HUD for common reference:

BB Call / SB Open / 3Bet

Notice that I don't use VPIP or PFR in my HUD. While these are common stats for figuring out a person's range in a ring game, heads-up players are either in position or out of position. Therefore, we can simplify our decision-making regarding ranges by taking the number shown on our hud and entering it directly into our calculations. If the "SB Open" value is "75%" this tells me a lot more about what hands my opponent raises on the button than the equivalent PFR number. Likewise, the BB Call stat tells me the opponent's call-out-of-position range which goes into making decisions while in position on nearly every street.

]]>

Cbet / Turn Cbet

These numbers are vital in a HUD; both the flop and the double barrel percentage give me information about how strong my hand needs to be to continue in a hand. If these numbers are too high, the opponent is ripe for bluff-checkraising.

Fold to Cbet / Fold to Turn Cbet

The fold-to-cbet stat is one of my most prized stats. If this number is too high, you can almost always take a Raise+Cbet line with any two cards from the button. The fold-to-turn-cbet stat hardly ever gets a large enough sample to be useful, but it can draw out some inconsistencies in the opponent's play, like his vulnerability to two-barrelling.

Donks flop raised pot / Folds donk to raise

When multi-tabling different opponents, it's important to know at a moment's notice whether or not the opponent regularly donk bets or rarely donk bets. This stat will lead you to play weak hands in position with more accuracy. Early in a match, tend to raise donk bets religiously in order to get a good sample on the folds-donk-to-raise stat, because a player who donks a majority of his weak hands (and folds them) is ripe for exploitive play.

These are the statistics I regularly check on my pop-up HUD to make decisions:

Folds to 3Bet / Check-raises flop / Aggression factor (indiv. streets) / Bets vs Missed Cbet

Some combination of these factors and whether they are lower or higher than average allow me to decide pretty clearly between good lines while playing 8 tables. I don't use these on my HUD, but I make sure I can access them in the popup menu.

*NEW STATS UPDATE* Donks Flop / Donks Turn / Donks River

I use these to determine whether my opponents are donking flop, or other streets, with a high percentage.

Multitabling: Part 1 - Introduction

2011-11-03T04:30:00Z

Multitabling is a very large topic, and I intend to discuss it on a general level as well as specifics like HUD use, and to what extent our play will worsen when we add more tables.

In my opinion, efficient multitabling is a vital skill for increasing hourly. Consider two players with the same intention: a high hourly rate.

The first player, John, intends to do this by paying for high quality coaching, studying videos on a regular basis, and reading forums or talking strategy. John conservatively estimates his winrate to be around 5% at the $100 games. Through our blogging omnipotence, let's assume his greatest potential as a player is to have around a 5% winrate at the $500 games. So, assuming John needs to two-table and watch his opponents, and he plays about 4 games per hour at these stakes, his hourly is very easy to calculate. He earns $5/game and plays 8 games an hour; $40/hr. With enough studying, he will earn $25/game; $200/hr. However, this assumes that he will still play 8 games an hour here, so in practice it will be a bit lower. In addition, to achieve this winrate increase, he will need to spend some time studying and paying money for coaching. His bankroll will grow slowly, but with enough time invested, he will consistently achieve $200/hr.

]]> The second player, Sage, isn't all that concerned with playing in the $500s. Rather, he'd just like to achieve $200/hr. In his case, a 5% ROI at the $100s would still equate to $5/game. However, if he simply plays more tables, he can still match the ambitions of John. At $5/game, this would require 40 games an hour, or roughly 8 tables.

In both cases, it takes a considerable amount of work to go from making $40/hr to $200/hr. John's best case scenario is that he accurately analyzed his potential and the games are as soft and plentiful at the $500s as he needs. Sage's best case scenario is that he has the hand and eye speed to play at eight tables at once.

So: What should YOUR plan be? The largest immediate and permanent increase to your winrate is likely the addition of more tables. Now that I've convinced you, here are the things you should have in order to successfully add a table or two.

Multitabling Checklist

Efficient software; Placemint, BetPot, etc.
A solid thousand games of good play with the strategy you intend to use.
A hud, and good notetaking skills (with a decent typing speed), to facilitate fast decisions.
Optimal lines and exploits for certain types of players.
Monitors that are large enough to comfortably tile your tables and a fast computer so that your hardware is never an issue.
Fundamental understanding of mathematically correct shortstack play.

Online Poker Strategies: Playing Pocket Kings When An Ace Flops

2011-11-01T02:00:00Z

It's a question that's often argued about online poker strategies. You've got pocket kings, but an ace comes on the flop. Does he have the ace? Learn about way ahead, way behind play and how you can save money when you're behind by playing pocket kings correctly after the flop.

Note: Can't see the cards in the video? Change the format to 720p and maximize it!

This and other online poker strategies brought to you by the YouPokerAcademy.

Playing Top Pair: Beginner Poker Coaching Video

2011-10-25T01:29:41Z

As far as online poker strategies go, playing top pair is one of the most asked questions by beginners. I've developed a video lesson on how to play top pair and other online poker strategies like using PokerStove, to be posted later.

I know this blog is supposed to focus on intermediate and advanced heads up poker topics, but these beginner topics are part of my new poker project, the YouPoker Academy lessons over at http://www.YouTube.com/YouPokerAcademy.

In the first lesson, I talk about playing top pair: when is it strong enough to get all in, and when should you throw it away?

Note: Can't see the cards? Try changing the video to 720p and maximizing it.

]]> What kind of online poker strategies would you like to see? Ask me your poker questions in the comments and I'll try to make some more poker coaching videos featuring the online poker strategies you request.

Download The HU SNG Bible

2011-10-15T03:12:45Z

This text, the HU SNG Bible, was recently posted to TwoPlusTwobefore being promptly taken down by ChicagoRy and the other mods.

It's 600 pages of the best HU SNG strategy, an anthology of wisdom and experience from some of the best in the game.

I'm presenting it on RiskOriented.com for those of you that missed it on TwoPlusTwo. Information wants to be free; therefore, I strenuously object to ChicagoRy's removal of this from the TwoPlusTwo forums.

Click Here To Download the HU SNG Bible

Is Heads Up Limit a Better Game For Your Playing Style?

2011-09-03T15:13:41Z

Special thanks to Jesse for this guest blog.

Today's poker game of choice is without a doubt no limit hold'em. It has been said that the future of poker is pot limit omaha. That leaves only one spot left for good ole' limit hold'em, and that is in the past.

So why would anyone play headsup limit hold'em in this day and age?

1. It's a personality thing

I listen to a lot of headsup no limit players talk about nuts of steel. You must risk your entire stack on the river with a 3-barrel. Or you need to be able to call that all-in overbet with your weak mid pair because you have read the kids soul. In limit you can get away with nuts of leather. Leather because in limit your courage has to be long lived. You don't have too many exciting hands but you have exciting matches. When you get a fish at 10/20+ it is murder on your salary to leave EVER. So you have to hang around and play the chap for 6 hours if that is what he wants to do. If your personality fits this profile you might consider limit.

]]> 2. Game Selection

1st of all, I should explain that this article refers almost entirely to cash games. HU Limit SNG's are simply not a profitable proposition in comparison. With cash game headsup poker you can be a good-to-average player and still make great money if you are very disciplined about game selection. You might sit at 30/60, be the worst reg sitting there, and still make $150/hr when you do get a match with a fish. But you must have the discipline to not play regs. Sure you may only get one match a month against a fish at this level, but when you do, and it lasts 4 hours, you have made a good day of it.

3. No Limit Regs

I've played a lot of NL headsup cash players who get board waiting at 200NL and decide to "slum it" at 5/10 or 3/6 limit. They figure that because they crush NL they ought to be able to crush the limit regs. But they can't. I recognize them because they fold way too many big blinds, make crazy bluffs, and don't cbet enough. When I get such a player I know all I have to do is play fundamentally sound limit poker and I'll come out ahead. Sure they aren't as profitable as fish but when you haven't got one on the line...

4. Pham, Benyamine, and Gold

People have made fortunes playing limit hold'em against the elite of the tournament world. For some reason these players don't realize that soul-reading and personality just isn't going to get you very far in limit. In limit you must have a solid understanding of game theory and the ability to calculate combinations on the fly. Much respect to these players, they are great at what they do. But what they do is not grind HU Limit cash games all day.

5. You are an Awful Multitabler

Very few players can play multiple tables of headsup limit hold'em successfully. The action is simply too fast. Unlike NL there are tough postflop decisions on nearly every hand. Many more hands go to showdown as well. So it is just too difficult to keep track of your image, your opponent tendencies, and the board texture on multiple tables. This is fine with me as I truly suck at multitabling. I'd rather get to know the playing habits of one player in fine detail then to have a passing familiarity with 4 players.

About the Guest Author

Jesse Walker is an online poker pro who splits his time between playing headsup limit and working on his websites. He is the founder of www.playbadugi.org. Yes, US players can still play badugi online. He is also the project leader for 365DaysofPoker, a daily poker magazine. For coaching or contact, jesse AT playbadugi.org.

Invisible Playing Cards

2011-04-09T14:53:58Z

I collect all kinds of playing cards. I came across this set of "invisible" playing cards in a local convenience store and I had to pick them up. They are definitely a cool novelty. Probably would make a good gift for a cardplayer in your life, too. On a different note, if you're from a country where you can get Cyrillic playing cards, just let me know how much you need to ship a pack to America. Really looking for a pack of Cyrillic cards. Well, without further ado, invisible playing cards:

Peter T. Quinn and His Unbeatable (LOL) Strategy

2011-03-17T16:28:25Z

Everybody who is reading this blog knows about my seminar. So, naturally, I'm going to notice when new competition pops up in the heads up coaching niche. Enter Peter T. Quinn, a self-professed professional poker player of fifteen years who has never won a tournament.

Peter had this to say (source) about heads-up poker:
"Heads up poker is a great option for when you are tired and not in a mental position to excel at a larger ring game or tournament."

He continues...
"When I find myself in such a position, I employ what I call the super-aggressive heads up poker strategy. Here's what I do: Every hand when not in the big blind, I raise 10% of the pot. The big blind will often fold and you'll collect chips quickly. When the big blind calls, after the flop, regardless of what cards are flopped, I go all in. The big blind will usually fold and, as you can see, your stack will quickly become dominant."

Peter is selling this completely fabricated poker wisdom for $50 a pop. This poker product is picking up a lot of steam, which is appropriate, since it's a pile of shit. The upside is that his 60-day money back guarantee is legitimate and enforced by his credit card processor, so your money isn't actually lost if you didn't know any better.

If you have anything to add, like a "thanks for all the fish," do so in the comments, and I'll make sure Mr. Quinn sees it.

Two Year Anniversary

2011-02-12T09:55:38Z

I just wanted to let everyone know that today is Risk Oriented's two-year anniversary. I'd like to thank each and every one of you (if I could) for making this website a success far greater than I or anyone involved in the early days could have imagined. A lot of my readers have been around for the whole two years, and you've seen periods where I updated all the time and some times when I didn't have anything to say. I just want to say thank you for keeping us in your thoughts and in your bookmarks.

I'd especially like to thank Anthony, who always brings me back to poker when I stray away for too long, all of my commenters and the people who give me feedback, and every single person who has purchased the seminar, because I know it isn't perfect but it is the best I can do, and you guys support me every time I try to make it better. Mike, for being a student and then showing me up in every way imaginable, congratulations on your success. Everybody who has ever blogged about my articles or translated them into Portuguese. Everyone who has ever questioned their validity on twoplustwo or another site, I welcome the challenges because I am usually wrong. Urinurine and Skates from HUSNG.com for contributing in the ways that you did to get my name out there.

I have greater plans for the site. I am going to create a free-to-play heads-up tournament ladder. It will be played here on Risk Oriented, not on PokerStars or Full Tilt, and it won't be for money, just bragging rights. I've priced the development of the engine, and it will be pretty expensive to have it done right (as opposed to having it done cheaply), but I feel this is the best way to reinvest my profits from the seminar. No firm date on when this will be in place, but without revealing too much personal information, I can say that the current profits from my seminar put me about 25% of the way there. I sent this idea to HUSNG.com two years ago, but they didn't want to spare any of your money to make it a reality. If you buy the seminar, you'll get fifteen really good lessons about heads up poker, and you'll be contributing to the development of what I think will be an extremely cool experience as great heads-up players from all different stake limits compete on a level playing field, defending their title as heads-up champion of the Internet.

I know updates have been slow lately - please don't stop checking for them. Always send me topics to write about. Questions in my e-mail accounted for probably 50% of last year's articles. I guess my point is just that if you help me with questions and comments on the site (it's integrated with Facebook now, and I would guess that nearly everybody has an account there, so no need to register or remember a password), I will tell you everything I know about being successful at poker.

And to everyone else in 2011 -- Good luck, and if you make a lot of money, teach me how.

Yale Game Theory Course Online

2011-02-04T22:12:06Z

If you have ever been interested in game theory, I seriously recommend watching the YaleCourses YouTube account.

I Play A Short Stack

2011-01-23T09:20:25Z