Risk Oriented

Ten Ways To Spot A Liar

2010-07-26T08:20:18Z

In this recent Forbes article, cops, spies, and psychologists teach you how to spot a lie. That's really important in poker, isn't it?]]>

#1 - Watch Body Language

Derrick Parker, a 20-year veteran of the New York Police Department and co-author of Notorious C.O.P., says to look for physical clues, especially sweating and fidgeting.

#2 - Seek Detail

Liars' stories often lack detail, says Lindsay Moran, a former CIA officer and author of Blowing My Cover: My Life as a CIA Spy. Her solution: Push your subject for particulars. The more minutiae a liar has to provide, the more likely he is to slip up.

#3 - Beware Unpleasantness

"Liars are noticeably less cooperative than truth-tellers," found psychologists Bella M. DePaulo and Wendy L. Morris in a review of studies on deception. "Liars also make more negative statements and complaints than truth-tellers do, and they appear somewhat less friendly and pleasant," they write in The Detection of Deception in Forensic Contexts.

#4 - Observe Eye Contact

A subject's failure to make eye contact is often sign of deceit, say both former NYPD officer Parker and former CIA agent Moran.

#5 - Signs of Stress

Look for dilated pupils and a rise in vocal pitch. Psychologists DePaulo and Morris found that both phenomena were more common in liars than truth-tellers.

#6 - Listen for the Pause

Forced to make up a story on the spot, most speakers will take a beat or two to collect their thoughts.

#7 - Ask Again

Police interrogators often ask suspects to repeat their stories, and listen for inconsistencies to ferret out lies. But be careful: "Smart people maintain the consistency of lies better than dumb people," says psychologist Robert Feldman, a professor of psychology at the University of Massachusetts.

#8 - Beware Those Who Protest Too Much

Someone who consciously is trying to make you think he's honest--for instance, by injecting the phrase "to be honest"--may be lying. Most people assume they will be trusted most of the time. If someone expects otherwise, take a moment to ask yourself why.

#9 - Know Thyself

One reason liars succeed is that listeners don't really want to know the truth, says psychologist Feldman. So be honest with yourself about what it is you want to hear. You may wish to believe that a trusted employee didn't have his hand in the cookie jar. But does his story actually make sense?

#10 - Work on Your Intuition

"Good human lie detectors, if there are such persons, are likely to be good intuitive psychologists. They would figure out how a person might think or feel if lying in a particular situation, compared to telling the truth, then look for behavioral indications of those thoughts or feelings," write psychologists De Paulo and Morris

Spotting Bluffs, Online Poker Tells

As an online poker player, I'm pretty sure that this advice can be translated to the virtual felt. In online poker though, spotting bluffers requires attention to a different type of tells. You simply don't have the eye contact and the body language to work with.

My favorite tell is the speed with which an opponent acts, called a timing tell. Timing tells are particularly useful in Heads-Up poker, when you only need to focus on one opponent. Find out what it means when a player makes a very fast raise (snap raise) in the postflop game. To me, it usually equals a bluff, because typically it means that the player decided to raise before the cards were dealt, but each player's timing tells are different. This is particularly true when dealing with continuation bets.

Of course, this tell is not foolproof (no tell is for that matter). A really crafty player may actually choose to disguise his hand strength this way. It all depends on the table texture. And speaking of table texture we must always remember that we have access to the past hand history. Judging a player by his hand frequency and continuation bet frequency is usually the type of analysis that yields the best results.

A Poker Riddle

2010-07-25T10:45:00Z

Which hand would you rather have:

an inside straight draw
two overcards

The big reveal: (Spoiler Alert) http://www.poker1.com/archives/8715. This comes from an excellent article that I read. I thought I'd share it with you.

"Now, there are a couple things to keep in mind that are beyond the scope of today's lesson - things we might talk about in the future. One is that not all overcards are equal. Aces rule, for sure. Another is that you can have both an overcard and an inside straight draw using just one card from your hand. The remaining card could be a deuce out of straight range, and you'd still have better prospects of drawing out on an opponent than you would if you held just two overcards. Also, since we're mentioning other considerations that we won't detail today, keep in mind that a lower straight draw is usually more likely to hold up than a higher one."

The Business of Poker

2010-07-24T09:30:29Z

I've been a successful poker player for more than seven years. There are a lot of great poker players out there, many of them reading my blog, I can tell from the ones I've spoken to. Being a great poker player doesn't automatically include being a great businessman or being capable of working for yourself. A lot of my friends are having some success right now, and I am sure that it will continue, because these are very good players. The only thing holding some of you guys back from being really successful is approaching poker like a business. This thread is a must-read for successful players. I talk about keeping cash ledgers, managing your time, staying upbeat, happy, physically fit, and sociable, and how to pay Uncle Sam your taxes.]]> Your Business Plan Writing a business plan for yourself is one of the easiest things in the world to do. Your business plan does not need to be a formal document, it just needs to be a reminder to you about what your goals are. There are a couple of things to note. You are never allowed to discuss $$$ in a the business plan. Winrate goals, game choices, or how much money you need to make do not belong in a business plan. Deal with them in a monthly journal or something.

A Sample Business Plan:

- Never Engage In Negative-EV Situations in or around Poker

Everyone makes mistakes, but making them intentionally is unprofessional.

- Keep Accurate Records

If you are a losing poker player, accurate records are the only way you will realize you need to change some things. If you are a winning poker player, you will get in hot water from the IRS if your records are sloppy. If your time is worth too much, keeping accurate records requires hiring an accountant to handle receipts, billing, and tax season.

- Money Management

I will cash out my winnings bi-monthly/monthly. I will increase my poker bankroll by 20% after every cashout. Of the other 80%, 40% goes into taxable income/savings accounts, and 40% goes to my checking account. If you have a losing month(s), continue to collect a minimum salary. You notice, you can only take home about 40% of what you cash out. You need to gross 2.5x your minimum living wage. It's not pretty, but that's the way it is.

Print that out and stick it in a notebook. Buy a cash ledger and put that in the notebook as well. Any time you play poker, or at the end of every day playing online, record the date, record the results. Use this ledger to keep track of when you cash out and how much and where the money goes to. Remember, only 40% of the money you cash out can go to your checking account or pay off your rent and credit cards. You need to send as much of your income as you can into your bankroll.

Protecting Your Bankroll

Your bankroll is the tool that you use to extract money from people at a table playing poker. It always hurts more to lose half your bankroll than you would gain from doubling it. Be safe. Lock down your poker accounts and your bankrolls with secure passwords. Even if you are from America, where it is getting harder to wire money into online sites, I strongly recommend keeping as much of your bankroll as you can off-site. Typically, I've been able to find a transaction method that would get money into or out of my account within three or five days. Find a fast and effective way to transfer money, even if that means paying a small fee. Do not ever transfer money directly from the poker site to your personal bank account. Use a separate bank account for all business-related transactions. Some banks are hostile to internet gambling, some don't mind a bit. Find a bank or credit union that keeps their nose out of your business.

Taxes

Since it's the middle of the year, I'm not going to get into this, but it's important to consider. Before next tax season, I'll cover or review the book How to Turn Your Poker Playing into a Business: Knowing What to Deduct to Improve Your Odds With the IRS, my favorite poker tax book. Other articles have priority, so, you'll have to wait for the review. Let me just say, it's the most accurate tax text for poker players, it covers live and internet play, and it comes recommended from tax professionals.

I know you guys like reading my articles, and I would really appreciate it if you would post it on a forum if you really enjoy it.

Three Step Process To Extracting The Maximum Profit

2010-07-17T20:46:35Z

Range - Equity - Maximum, or REM, was a concept created with the first printing of Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I. It's a terrific way to evaluate your plays in no-limit holdem and think logically about your decisions.]]>

Range

The first step in REM is defining your opponents range. There are over a thousand possible poker hands, but based on your opponents decisions throughout the hands, we can narrow this range down to something more manageable. To properly execute the Range step, there are a number of sub-steps to consider.

Know Thy Opponent - Everything about your opponent will affect whether or not certain hands are in the opponent's range. A tight player, under the gun, will not raise garbage. I've made a list of the things you can know about your opponent that will help you gain the most information: Preflop Standards, Betting Patterns or Amounts in Various Situations, Particular Actions on Specific Streets or with Specific Hand Types, Physical Tells, Betting Pace. (Read More: all of these categories are fleshed out in the book, Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I)

Reevaluate What You Know - Every street should involve a reassessment of your opponents range based on each new action on each new street. This should also involve reassessing previously eliminated hands. Opponents are capable of and willing to mix up their play by raising hands like eight-five suited.

Things to remember: put your opponent on a range of hands. Eliminate hands you are fairly sure they don't have. Narrow their range further by observing specific things about a player, like betting patterns and timing tells. Pay attention even after you've folded. Reassess on each new action.

Equity

The second step in REM is to analyze the information that we got during the first step. This is simply calculating your equity against your opponents range. Off the table, this step can be outsourced into PokerStove, but on the table, you need a few additional skills for estimating your equity on the fly.

To estimate your equity on the fly, think about your opponents hands that you are a big favorite over and those hands you are a big underdog to. If your opponents range primarily consists of hands that you are a big underdog to, your equity is probably bad. If your opponent primarily holds hands that you are a big favorite to, your equity is probably good.

Never overlook folding equity. Sometimes, against an opponent range, using your fold equity will be the most effective way to win the pot.

Maximize

Maximizing means making the best decision given your equity in the hand. Your choice of actions is always to check, fold, bet, raise, or call. Your goal is to maximize your winnings by selecting the highest EV action.

Checking - You benefit from checking behind when you have a weak hand and little folding equity, and there is a chance that you will improve to the best hand. A weak gutshot draw to the nuts is a great example of when to check behind. If you are first to act, checking to your opponent works well if your opponents are aggressive and you want them to bet.

Betting - Betting is appropriate when you want to extract profit, punish draws, or make others fold. The first question to answer is whether you want your opponents in the pot or whether you want them out of the pot. When you want them to stay in, you execute a bet that is sized to extract value. When you want them to go away, you should execute a well-sized bluff.

Folding, Calling, or Raising with Drawing Hands - With a weak draw with poor pot equity, choose between folding and calling. Call with good implied odds and fold with bad. With a strong draw and good pot equity, choose between raising and calling. Call with good implied odds, and raise with bad.

Summary

The book this is from, Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I , is an excellent discussion of some advanced No Limit Hold'em concepts. It is a must-read for any serious poker player.

Unskilled and Unaware of It

2010-06-22T06:22:23Z

A recent article in the New York Times caught my eye. It discusses a paper in cognitive psychology titled "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties of Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-assessments."

According to the paper, there are two types of people in the world: those who have enough experience to know they're making a mistake, and those who don't have that much experience yet. In this world-view, the amateur player makes a mistake but also fails to realize that it was a mistake.
]]> He has no idea how miserably he fails with almost every turn, how many possible words or optimal plays slip by unnoticed. The idea of Scrabble greatness doesn't exist for him."

This is a great reason why it's important not to tap the glass in poker. An amateur player may not yet know enough to realize that he needs to learn more. As soon as he realizes how little he knows, you have started him on the path to being a professional. It would be interesting to look back and find out how many of today's professionals were motivated to learn the game by a guy needling them in chat.

The average poker player does not realize what clues he is missing in a hand. He may make a decision based on some bits of information, but not others. A professional knows what clues to look for and how he should play because of them. That's why "How could you call there? I was clearly representing a set." is already going too far. Now that the fish has started thinking about what you "are representing," he's on his way to second- and third-level thinking.

The "unskilled and unaware of it" situation is also one of the primary reasons why hiring a coach will do more for your game than anything else. Your coaches should have coaches of their own. A good coach will teach you to recognize and avoid the mistakes that you are currently unaware of.

Potential Poker Winrates in a Number of Different Game Types, Formats, etc.

2010-06-04T07:12:45Z

In this article, I discuss what winrates are sustainable over a large sample by a good player, in different game types and formats, and then I discuss what hourly rate these ROIs translate into.
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Heads Up:
$50 SNGs can earn between $60 and $90 an hour.
NL100 Cash can earn you around $16 an hour.

6-Max:
$50 SNGs can earn you between $45 and $84 an hour.
NL100 Cash can earn you between $16 and $24 an hour.

9-Max:
$75 SNGs can earn you between $72 and $144 an hour.
NL100 Cash can earn you between $30 and $54 an hour.

MTTs:
The very large $216 Sunday Majors can earn you about $162 for each MTT.

Where Have I Been?

2010-05-16T02:21:12Z

I haven't updated in just over a week, so I thought I ought to check in via the blog to let everyone know what's going on.

I'm playing poker about five hours a day lately.

I've got a poker writing gig with another website, and most of my poker writing gumption is being put towards that.

I don't have any interesting topics to discuss. Have you got something you want me to write about? Let me know in the comments.

What are the skills of a great poker player?

2010-05-07T10:47:20Z

This is a response to the article over at Suited Aces of the same name.

Danny always believed that he had some poker skill, but not what it takes to beat the highest stakes games. Now that he plays high stakes poker, Danny asks, "Why was I wrong? Why did I feel like I didn't have the potential to be the best? Besides the obvious underinflated self esteem, a lot of it had to do with misguided views on what it takes to be a good poker player."
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First, you have to have faith in the theory of poker. You have to believe that even if a player showed up with aces the last time you three-bet him, it doesn't mean it was a bad three-bet. You have to be able to see mistakes for what they are, and nothing more. Mistakes can be large or small, and if you don't exploit them, they'll accidentally (unknowingly) exploit you. Danny specifically makes the point that you've got to integrate ranges into your decisions.

Second, he argues that it's important to understand people and get inside their heads. This will teach you to take your knowledge about theory and ranges, take a leap of faith, and throw it all out the window in order to make better decisions.

I would argue that there's a third requirement: dedication. The most successful players I know are the players who are disciplined and level-headed. They set goals and meet them. They structure their schedules to make time, not only for poker, but for hand reviews, videos, and coaching sessions.

Cereus Slashes Rake on HU SuperTurbos

2010-05-06T12:17:39Z

The Cereus Network (Absolute, UltimateBet) have finally dropped the rake on their 500-chip super turbo games. The new rake is 2.5%. For Super Turbo Strategy, click here. To see what kind of bankroll you need to play these games, assume a 2-4% ROI and use this calculator. If you want to make a new account on Cereus, please use Risk Oriented Rakeback.

Open Thread: Things To Do While Waiting

2010-04-26T21:00:46Z

Running a blog like this has upsides and downsides. One downside is that people know my name, and so it takes longer for me to get action. A lot of times I find myself just sitting, waiting on a game. In this week's Open Thread, tell me what you do during downtime.

]]> What do you do during downtime? Let us know in the comments. These weekly Open Threads are a great opportunity for me to get feedback from readers, so please participate.

HUSNG Super Turbo Strategy

2010-04-24T21:10:54Z

Full Tilt has added Super Turbo HU SNGs to their game lineup. Here, I discuss strategies and reading material for Super Turbo HUSNGs, where the stacks start at only 500 chips.
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A Super Turbo game could be considered any game where the stacks never get deeper than 30BB. At these short stack sizes, a game theoretically optimal strategy can be discovered.

In position, unless your opponent has read this article, you should minraise every hand. Your opponent can only exploit this by 3-betting a very high percentage of the time: 50% or more!

Out of position, if your opponent is passive (rarely raises), you should only 3-bet for value. Probably A8+, 22+, and JTs+. Your opponents hand will be stronger than yours when he does raise, and he is forgoing a large edge by not raising often preflop. Therefore, you profit every time you get the button, but he does not profit when he gets the button. This is an inequilibrium that favors you.

If he is aggressive in position, 3-bet the top 50% of your hands, and call a shove. This is because your opponent will not usually have a hand that can stand up to a reraise, and once you have reraised, you almost always have pot-odds to call an all-in.

I think 2-4% ROI is achievable in these games. 1% is probably a good goal for most professional players, at low to middle stakes. As such, you should bankroll very conservatively. 100 buyins is probably not enough, I would like 150 or 200! You can use the Kelly Bankroll Calculator on this site to get an idea of what your bankroll requirements should be. Personally, I've seen plenty of bad opponents at the $5 and $10 levels, and I am positive that games at these stakes are beatable.

If you're going to pursue these games, the following is required reading:
Better Than Nash Shoving Equilibriums
How To Play Short Stacks HU
Skates Inflection Points

Evading the UIGEA - Playing on European Sites

2010-04-23T17:32:20Z

Have you ever wondered if Americans can play on European poker sites? In this article, we review the security procedures of major European poker sites. This post will be updated as the situation changes for any of the sites.

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PartyPoker

PartyPoker allows transfers, but the transferring account is required to play at PartyPoker as well before cashing out. Therefore, you can circumvent the No-US rules by affiliating with an existing PartyPoker player from the EU, and transferring funds in and out of your account.

Betfair Poker Rakeback Link

BetFair requires ID verification before withdrawals. BetFair does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

PKR Poker Rakeback Link

PKR requires ID verification before withdrawals. PKR does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

Prima Poker (Ladbrokes Poker, Unibet, Purple Lounge) Rakeback Link

Prima requires ID verification before withdrawals. Prima does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

Boss Media (Poker Heaven, InterPoker, Fortune Poker, Paradise Poker, Virgin Poker, Parbet, OPoker) Rakeback Link

Boss Media requires ID verification before withdrawals. Boss Media does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

Entraction Network (NoiQ Poker, Devilfish Poker, PokerMambo) Rakeback Link

Entraction requires ID verification before withdrawals. Entraction does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

OnGame (Eurobet, Betsafe Poker, Tower Gaming, RedKings Poker) Rakeback Link

OnGame requires ID verification before withdrawals. OnGame does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

Pacific Network (Pacific Poker, Littlewoods Poker) Rakeback Link

Pacific requires ID verification before withdrawals. Pacific does not allow transfers between player accounts. Therefore, there is no way to circumvent their security via transfers.

Logging on from inside the US

If you want to log on to your newly created account, you need a VPN service. I use iPredator, because they are a pre-paid Swedish service protected under Swedish anonymity laws. VPN services mask your location by making you appear as though you're logging in from the data center where the VPN service is hosted. Therefore, when you are connected through your VPN, every outgoing connection your computer makes is actually made from Sweden.

Caveat Emptor

I'm not responsible for anything that happens to you, your money, or your account by you circumventing the Terms and Services of a Poker Site or the laws of the United States.

The Art of a Heads Up SNG

2010-04-19T13:13:31Z

Sorry for not blogging in awhile. I've been grinding 10hr days, which is not what I should be doing but since I've been running extremely well I feel like putting in volume while I'm playing my best is the right thing to do.

For those of you who don't know, I specialize in HU SNGs, and for the last two years I have been making a living grinding these things, and I feel like I have a good understanding of the game. So today I would like to talk about some of things I've learned about these 1500 chip duels.
]]> above average understanding of the game and you must have confidence that you can beat anyone. If you're not capable of bluffing the turn just to jam the river then this might not be for you, and I suggest you go nit it up at a cash game. HU is the best way to maximize your individual skill, and there is no other game in poker where your skill prevails more than in a HU match. That being said, you need the keen ability to bluff as well as know when your opponent is bluffing, and only great players have both skills. A lot of that comes with experience, and I do not recommend heads up to anyone new to poker. Heads up is all about the button, because position means everything. If I see a kid that doesn't open from the button and isn't c-betting (continuation betting) then I know right there that he has no idea what he's doing.

Don't be standard, I swear to God, every kid is min raising button and half potting the flop. It's getting ridiculous, and I know its optimal play but like every kid on PokerStars is doing it. Understand situations and if you're bluffing or not. Don't bluff just because you know your hand is not good, but understand what you're trying to represent as well as your opponent's hand range/calling range. Have the balls to jam the river just because you know your opponent is middle pair at best (make sure you bet the turn so you can represent a hand). Heads up is all about the story you tell, and if you want to triple barrel and represent a made hand, then you can. However, it takes a great player to know when they're beat and hold off on firing that last bullet.

Aggressive play is optimal in heads up because most the time, players are playing marginal hands. Picking up as many pots as you can is vital. Understand how to play very short stacks because at 50-100 and up, push/fold poker is very key.

Timing tells: I can't explain them for the life of me and I think it's all intuitive and it just comes with seeing situations over and over again, but I can pick up on tells in my sleep.

You have to put in volume, and I mean sick volume, because you're playing little edges, and those little edges with volume is what gets you paid. For example, the best players at HU don't win above 57% of their games, and the only way to make a great profit is to put in the volume. Love the game and love every moment of the grind, and if you're miserable grinding, then this is not for you. If you have the passion to learn and get better and use strict bankroll management, then take a shot and dream big and don't fall short.

Thanks for reading I really appreciate it and if you have any questions or just want to talk poker, drop me a comment on my blog.

I'll leave you guys with a preview of what I think will be a badass reality TV series.

Statistical Theory for Poker

2010-04-18T17:11:24Z

Everybody's been exposed to statistics at some point or another. The study of statistics is two-fold. First, there's applied statistics, which we use in applications like my Variance & Bankroll Calculators, that let us know if what we're experiencing is out of the norm. Second, there's statistical theory, which can help us avoid making general errors in judgment.

Three major theoretical concepts stand out, the Law of Large Numbers, the Central Limit Theorem, and Sampling Bias.

]]> 1 - Law of Large NumbersAs our sample gets larger, all of our observed numbers get closer to their true values. OK, easy enough! But did you know, you can make "pretty good" justifications with a very small sample? For example, say you sit down at a 9-handed table with an opponent who plays very tight when in a good mood but plays very loose when tilted. If he raises his two hands in a row, you can assume with over 90% certainty that he's not playing tight. So, by the second raise, you could already be thinking about three-betting this particular opponent.

Take Home Message: Some things need a very large sample, some things need a very small sample.

Read more on the Law of Large Numbers

2 - Central Limit Theorem

Many statistics we use in poker have a normal distribution. This means, if our sample is outside of what we expect, there's a better chance of getting what we expect in the next sample. This is NOT the "gambler's fallacy" which would erroneously state that if a coin comes tails ten times, it is more likely to come tails or heads, next. Instead, this says that if a coin comes tails seven out of ten times, it is more likely to come tails <7 out of ten times in our next sample, than it is to come tails 8 or more times out of ten.

Take Home Message: If you achieve a sample ROI of 10%, it is more likely that your actual ROI is <10% than >10%, because most players ROIs are <10%.

Read more on the Central Limit Theorem

3 - Sampling Bias

Sampling bias occurs when we look at a non-representative sample, like a sample bounded by two events. A "500 game break-even stretch" is not a representative sample of games. First, we wouldn't even be looking at the sample if we had performed as we expected. Second, are selecting the start of the sample to be when we ran very well, and the end of the sample to be when we ran poorly.

Take Home Message: It's almost impossible to get an unbiased survey in poker.

Read more on Sampling Bias

Introducing the Kelly Criterion Bankroll Calculator

2010-04-18T16:31:18Z

While poker theory is a relatively new field, modern economic theory has been around for decades. The question "How do I maximize my long-term profits in risky ventures?" has been answered with finality. You can use this calculator to find out just how much you should buy in for in a heads-up game.

Why choose a Kelly strategy? For starters, it completely negates the concept of risk-of-ruin. The Kelly involves fluidly moving up and down between limits, as dictated by your bankroll. If you go on a tear, you will move up in limits. If you run bad, you are able to drop down.
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The math used in this calculator comes from this article.