A Poker Riddle

    Which hand would you rather have:
  • an inside straight draw
  • two overcards
The big reveal: (Spoiler Alert) http://www.poker1.com/archives/8715. This comes from an excellent article that I read. I thought I'd share it with you.

"Now, there are a couple things to keep in mind that are beyond the scope of today's lesson - things we might talk about in the future. One is that not all overcards are equal. Aces rule, for sure. Another is that you can have both an overcard and an inside straight draw using just one card from your hand. The remaining card could be a deuce out of straight range, and you'd still have better prospects of drawing out on an opponent than you would if you held just two overcards. Also, since we're mentioning other considerations that we won't detail today, keep in mind that a lower straight draw is usually more likely to hold up than a higher one."

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Where Have I Been?

I haven't updated in just over a week, so I thought I ought to check in via the blog to let everyone know what's going on. 


I'm playing poker about five hours a day lately. 

I've got a poker writing gig with another website, and most of my poker writing gumption is being put towards that.

I don't have any interesting topics to discuss. Have you got something you want me to write about? Let me know in the comments.

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Open Thread: Things To Do While Waiting

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Running a blog like this has upsides and downsides. One downside is that people know my name, and so it takes longer for me to get action. A lot of times I find myself just sitting, waiting on a game. In this week's Open Thread, tell me what you do during downtime.

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Introducing the Kelly Criterion Bankroll Calculator

While poker theory is a relatively new field, modern economic theory has been around for decades. The question "How do I maximize my long-term profits in risky ventures?" has been answered with finality. You can use this calculator to find out just how much you should buy in for in a heads-up game.

Why choose a Kelly strategy? For starters, it completely negates the concept of risk-of-ruin. The Kelly involves fluidly moving up and down between limits, as dictated by your bankroll. If you go on a tear, you will move up in limits. If you run bad, you are able to drop down.

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Introducing the Variance Calculator

Ever wonder just how bad you're running? The Variance Calculator, in the Tools tab, will tell you how unlikely it is for you to run this bad.

The calculator assumes a few things. First, that you don't tilt. Second, that you don't move up and down in stakes.

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New Layout at RiskOriented.com

Hope everyone enjoys the new layout. If you'd like to see anything changed, drop me a comment.

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Added a Printable Version of the Better Than Nash Shoving Equilibriums

Our most popular article, the Better Than Nash Shoving Equilibriums, has gotten a bit of an update. Now there's a printable version. We regret that you still need a color printer, because it just won't work in black and white.

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Special offer for our Facebook readers

We'd like to expand our readership. We'd also like for you to get better at poker. So, here's our offer. If you have more than 100 Facebook friends, and you click "Like this." on Facebook, we'll give you a free hand history review (up to 30 hands). If you have more than 300 friends, and you "Like this" on Facebook, we'll give you a strategy video. If you have more than 600 friends, and you "Like this" on Facebook, we'll sweat you in a game and offer commentary.

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Regarding Shearing Sheep

This question is for open ended response: do you think the saying "you can shear a sheep many times but only skin him once" applies to online poker? In other words, should you ever let a fish go with some of his money left?

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November, Week One Wrap Up

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Week 1 went GREAT! I had a 31% ROI. I played 97 games for a +$1643 week.

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